Watch for
Feeling that a first estimate is "normal" just because it arrived first.
Decision & ChoiceBias #02
Anchoring
Letting the first number or idea pull later judgement.
The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the "anchor") when making decisions, even when that information is irrelevant or arbitrary.
Why it matters: One of the most robust findings in behavioural economics. Anchoring works even when the anchor is obviously irrelevant.
Try this
Generate a fresh estimate before seeing the anchor, then compare the gap.
Real-world example
A product first shown at £300 makes £180 feel cheap, even if £180 is still expensive.
Key researchers
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky
First described in 1974
Psychological mechanism
Anchor-and-Adjust Heuristic. When estimating a value under conditions of uncertainty, the human brain treats the initial number as a baseline reality and makes highly conservative, insufficient adjustments away from it.
Seminal research
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1974), "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases," published in Science.
Related Biases
Below is a realistic scenario. Read it, then choose what you would do. The feedback will show whether a cognitive bias influenced your choice — not to judge, but to reveal the pattern in action.
Thought Experiment
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
STEP 1 → ReadSTEP 2 → ChooseSTEP 3 → Reveal
Debrief
Anchoring is not a sign of weakness — it is a feature of how the brain processes numbers. The first number creates a mental reference point that all subsequent numbers are adjusted from, and adjustments are usually insufficient. Always write down your estimate or target before hearing anyone else's number.