Thought Experiments
Each thought experiment drops you into a realistic decision. Make a choice, see if a cognitive bias pulled you one way, and understand why. No wrong answers — just honest insight into how your mind works.
Confirmation Bias
Favouring information that supports what we already believe.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Anchoring
Letting the first number or idea pull later judgement.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Availability Heuristic
Judging likelihood by what comes to mind most easily.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Low skill can hide its own limits.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Loss Aversion
Losses feel stronger than equivalent gains.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Past investment can trap future judgement.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Halo Effect
One positive trait can colour the whole picture.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Negativity Bias
Bad news often feels louder than good news.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Status Quo Bias
We often prefer things to stay the same.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Bandwagon Effect
Popularity can masquerade as truth.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Framing Effect
Presentation changes how a choice feels.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Self-Serving Bias
We credit ourselves for wins and the world for losses.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Regression to the Mean
Extreme outcomes often drift back toward average.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Overconfidence Effect
Confidence can outrun accuracy.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Optimism Bias
We often expect better outcomes for ourselves.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Projection Bias
We assume others see the world as we do.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Hindsight Bias
After the fact, events feel obvious.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Actor-Observer Bias
We explain our own behaviour differently from others'.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Decoy Effect
A third option can steer a choice.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Confirmation Cascade
Repeated agreement can drown out dissent.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Fundamental Attribution Error
We overestimate personality and underestimate situations.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Gambler's Fallacy
Past random events feel like they must balance out.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Curse of Knowledge
Once you know something, it is hard to imagine not knowing it.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Backfire Effect
Contradicting evidence can sometimes strengthen a belief.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Barnum Effect
Vague personal descriptions feel surprisingly accurate.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
IKEA Effect
We value what we help create.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Endowment Effect
Owning something makes it more valuable.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Planning Fallacy
We underestimate how long things will take.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Illusion of Transparency
Others can see through us more than they actually can.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Out-Group Homogeneity Effect
They all look the same to us.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Bystander Effect
The more people present the less likely anyone helps.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Groupthink
The desire for harmony can override critical thinking.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Social Loafing
Individual effort drops in group settings.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Identifiable Victim Effect
A single face moves us more than a thousand statistics.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Hostile Attribution Bias
We see hostility in neutral actions.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Moral Credential Effect
Past good deeds can license future bad ones.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Naive Cynicism
We expect everyone else to be more biased than they are.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Third-Person Effect
Media influences everyone else more than me.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Compassion Fade
Our empathy diminishes as numbers grow.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Illusion of Asymmetric Insight
We think we know others better than they know us.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Proximity Bias
We favour people who are physically closer.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Peak-End Rule
We judge experiences by their peak and their ending.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Cryptomnesia
Forgotten memories feel like original ideas.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Misinformation Effect
Post-event information can distort our memory.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Sleeper Effect
Persuasion can increase as the source is forgotten.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Attentional Bias
We focus on threats and miss everything else.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Hyperbolic Discounting
We prefer smaller rewards now over larger ones later.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Choice Overload
Too many options can paralyse decision-making.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Zero-Risk Bias
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a large risk partially.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Default Effect
We stick with whatever is pre-selected.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Mental Accounting
We treat money differently depending on its source.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Escalation of Commitment
We throw good resources after bad.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Information Bias
We seek data even when it cannot change the decision.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Automation Bias
We trust automated systems over human judgment.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Base Rate Fallacy
We ignore general probabilities in favour of specific details.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Authority Bias
We trust authority figures more than we should.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Illusory Truth Effect
Repetition makes statements feel true.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Semmelweis Reflex
We reject new evidence that contradicts established beliefs.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Belief Bias
We judge arguments by how believable the conclusion is.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Hot-Hand Fallacy
We believe streaks predict continued success.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Neglect of Probability
We ignore odds when emotions are involved.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Catastrophizing
We imagine worst-case scenarios as likely outcomes.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Illusion of Explanatory Depth
We think we understand more than we actually do.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Continued Influence Effect
Misinformation lingers even after correction.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Disconfirmation Bias
We scrutinise opposing views more harshly than our own.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Moral Luck Bias
We judge actions by their outcomes not by their decisions.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Just-World Hypothesis
We believe the world is fundamentally fair.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Illusion of Control
We overestimate our ability to control random events.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Impact Bias
We overestimate how much future events will affect us.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Restraint Bias
We overestimate our ability to resist temptation.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Better-Than-Average Effect
Most people think they are above average.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Choice-Supportive Bias
We retroactively justify our choices.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Egocentric Bias
We overestimate our own contribution.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Subliminal Priming Effect
Subtle cues unconsciously shape our behaviour.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Outcome Bias
We judge decisions by their results not their quality.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Stereotyping
We categorise people by group rather than individual.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Ego Depletion Bias
We believe willpower runs out with use.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Bias Blind Spot
We see bias in others but not ourselves.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Believing something makes it come true.
This experiment places you in a realistic decision. Your instinctive choice will reveal whether bias is at work.
How thought experiments help
Knowing the name of a cognitive bias isn't enough. Real understanding comes from seeing the pattern in action — feeling the pull of a biased decision in a realistic context. These experiments are a safe space to explore your own thinking.