Belief & ConfidenceBias #112

Congruence Bias

We only test our hypotheses by seeking confirming evidence.

The tendency to test hypotheses exclusively by seeking direct positive evidence rather than attempting to falsify them through disconfirming tests.

Why it matters: Related to Wason confirmation bias. A key concept in scientific reasoning and hypothesis testing.

Watch for

Testing ideas by looking for what confirms rather than what contradicts.

Try this

Design tests that could specifically prove your hypothesis wrong.

Real-world example

To test whether a plant needs more water you only check if the soil feels dry rather than also checking if it could be overwatered.

Key researchers

Jonathan Baron

First described in 1985

Psychological mechanism

Positive test strategy. The brain defaults to asking "is this true?" rather than "could this be false?" because positive tests are easier to construct and interpret.

Seminal research

Jonathan Baron (1985), "Rationality and intelligence."